How past picks did

Two views of the same locked Breakout Index™ shortlists: hit rate vs the full research band, and a soft paper-follow curve under fixed risk rules. Research only.

See today's shortlist See last week's shortlist

Paper follow

Equal-weight top 3 with trailing take-profit (−14% stop from entry / 14pp trail from peak) over the last 60 pick-days. Winners keep climbing until the trail trips; not the same as hit rate vs a fixed band.

Starts at $10,000; updates after each short-hold loop. Soft research only.

These curves are notional analytics only, not live Trading agent fills.

Paper follow · 7-day

−54.6%

11 short-hold loops · 2 take-profits / 21 stop-losses

~7d hold, top 3 · BTC buy-hold −3.0%

Paper follow · 30-day

+109.1%

4 short-hold loops · 5 take-profits / 4 stop-losses

~30d hold, top 3 · BTC buy-hold −3.0%

Hit rates vs the band

How often locked Breakout Index™ shortlist picks broke out after each window ended, compared with the band average.

16.5%

7-day #1 hit rate

Share of daily #1 picks that broke out within 7 days, across 135 graded days. Band base rate 8.8%; #1 lift 1.88× (+7.7 pp).

15.7%

7-day top-3 hit rate

How often a pick in the day's top 3 broke out within the window.

15.3%

7-day top-5 hit rate

How often a pick in the day's top 5 broke out within the window.

13.9%

7-day top-10 hit rate

How often a pick in the locked daily shortlist broke out within the window.

1.88×

#1 lift vs band

Band average breakout rate is 8.8%. Lift below 1.0× means #1 underperformed a random band pick over this sample.

Track record questions

How hit rates and paper follow are graded, and what they are not.

What do track-record hit rates measure?
Hit rates show how often locked daily shortlist picks broke out within the chosen window after that window ended. Each trader horizon (1-day, 7-day, 30-day) has its own locked cohort. Past graded outcomes are analytics only.
What is the notional paper follow?
Soft research curves that equal-weight locked top 3 picks. Trailing take-profit: −14% stop from entry, unlimited upside, exit after a 14pp trail from peak. These curves are a fixed research window, separate from the trading agent, which starts at a 10% stop and a 10 point trail and can move. These curves are notional analytics only (not live Trading agent fills).
Does Breakflare work for day traders, swing traders, or position traders?
Yes. You choose a 1-day, 7-day, or 30-day window at onboarding (or anytime in the terminal). Each window uses its own Breakout Index™ scoring and locked track-record cohort. Day traders use the 1-day window; swing traders usually use 7 days; slower sizing or DCA often uses 30 days. Core research is rankings and context; optional Trading agent can place orders on your connected exchange.
Does Breakflare predict prices?
No. Breakflare measures attention and how fast it is changing, not future price targets or fair value. Breakout Index™ ranks candidates relative to peers. It is not a guarantee of top-50 entry or returns.
Can I trade on Breakflare?
Core research (ranked candidates, whales, trackers, and alerts) does not place orders by itself. Optional Breakflare trading agent can: paper (simulated) mode is included, and live orders on your own connected exchange account (trade-only API keys, Binance spot first) need keys and credits. Breakflare never holds your trading balances.
Does Breakflare give buy/sell recommendations?
No. Rankings, scores, alerts, and catalyst notes describe attention and market context. They are not buy, sell, or hold recommendations. You are responsible for your own decisions.
What are Breakflare's main limitations?
It does not predict prices. Core research does not place orders by itself; optional Trading agent can place paper or live orders on your connected exchange. Early history is thin until daily runs accumulate. Signal coverage can vary by coin and day. Breakout Index™ ranks relative peers; it is not a guarantee of top-50 entry.

More questions? Browse the full FAQ for plans, setup, comparisons, and limitations.

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